Wednesday, 18 February 2009
Subject: Housing & the Obama Stimulus Package - Status Report
Here's our take on the Stimulus Bill and Treasury announcements made this week. We look at the Stimulus package AND the Treasury's package holistically, in compliment with each other - mostly because that's how the Obama team is looking at it. Your representatives, the NAR Board of Directors asked us in November to do 4 things (with an unspoken but clearly understood mandate to PRESERVE what we already have). Here they are: 1) get loan limits raised for high cost areas, 2) make the $7,500 tax credit NOT a loan, 3) try to find ways to push interest rates down (which are higher than they should be due to systemic risk right now) by 200 basis points, and 4) help provide solutions to the foreclosure/short sale problem.
So here's what we have achieved: 1) the loan limits will be raised to $729,750 in high cost areas, 2) the tax credit will be raised to $8,000 with NO payback [a true credit], 3) interest rates have come down 125-150 basis points, and 4) the bill has over 50 billion in it for foreclosure mitigation, with Geithner’s Treasury plan signaling that the second half of TARP and TALF will be used to mitigate foreclosures through a government guarantee, drive down interest rates by buying another 200-300 billion of mortgage paper from the GSES's thereby freeing them up to do the same with new mortgages, and Fannie has just agreed to lift the cap of 4 investment properties eligible for loans and raise it to 10.
In addition, we preserved what we have - which some tend to forget is always on the table when these negotiations start up again - mortgage interest deductibility, real estate tax deductibility, and the $250,000/$500,000 cap gains exclusion (an overall package worth more than $100 billion and for some a very attractive funding source for their pet projects).
We did make a run at the $15,000 credit -- and we would have loved to have gotten that or the Homebuilders $22,000 credit idea as well as their 5 year loss carryback deal, but they were considered too rich for this program. What it did do though is totally take the debate off of whether the repayable tax credit should be changed or extended at all and not whether it was a true credit or a repayable loan, and kept the conversation on how much it should be. It also kept the debate off of "what we are willing to give up" to get a $15,000 tax credit and kept the debate again, on how much it should be. It's pretty hard to complain when they give you what you ask for and you lose something you never had.
While we study the Treasury specifics on their major role in providing the rest of the housing solution -- there is much more to come and we are working diligently with the Administration to help 'unclog the pipeline' and get capital flowing into housing again.
